OLUFEMI ATOYEBI examines the complex nature of Oyo State governorship race with all the big players now eyeing Governor Abiola Ajimobi’s seat
The race for the governorship seat of Oyo
State was expected to be a two horse race because of the disaffection
in the Peoples Democratic Party as a result of the party’s primaries,
which ended with two prominent members, Adebayo Alao-Akala and Seyi
Makinde defecting to other parties.
The incumbent Governor Abiola Ajimobi
would face his cousin and a former governor in the state, Rashidi
Ladoja, of Accord Party in the governorship election in 2015 and the
contest is made more interesting and competitive when another former
governor, Alao-Akala entered the race, having defected to the Labour
Party from PDP and won the party’s ticket within two days.
His action brings the political landscape
in the state closer to a major change. No one has ruled the state
beyond a single term but that jinx would be broken if one of the three
candidates wins in 2015. But there are two other candidates who cannot
be ignored. These are Makinde and former Senate Leader, Teslim Folarin.
Leaders of PDP in Oyo State may ignore
the obvious by waving aside the talk of in-party crisis, but the party
has gone through trial period in the past two months. It started with
the party’s inability to hold a conclusive ward congress where delegates
for the primary elections would have emerged from the 351 wards in the
state. The congress was held twice but there was no common result.
In Abuja, meetings were held between the
National Working Committee of the party and the governorship aspirants
but these could not resolve the contentious issue as all the aspirants
fought to gain control of the delegates list. When the party resolved to
use statutory delegates for the primary, the crisis reached a melting
point as Alao-Akala and Makinde opted to leave the party. While
Alao-Akala fumed that the new arrangement was put in place by the party
to favour Folarin, Makinde said it was against a court ruling that had
earlier compelled the party to use a certain delegates list that emerged
from one of the ward congresses.
Expectedly, Folarin emerged on the day
Alao-Akala declared for LP. The emergence of Folarin adds a new twist to
the governorship contest, just as Makinde’s adoption by Social
Democratic Party and now United Peoples Party throw open the contest.
Judging by its size and political
relevance in the state, Ibadan holds the key to the government house but
that status could be neutralised in 2015. If it were to be a contest
between Ladoja and Ajimobi, both from Ibadan, the political situation in
the state would have put Oke-Ogun, Ibarapa and Ogbomoso zones in the
driving seat. Their votes would have decided the winner after both
candidates would have slogged it out on home fronts. But today, Ibadan
is fielding four candidates, Ajimobi, Ladoja, Folarin and Makinde, with
varying strength on home front. They all have a common rival in
Alao-Akala, who is from Ogbomoso and who has support in the Oke-Ogun
area, where LP has gained tremendous fan base because of the Michael
Koleoso’s factor.
Koleoso was a disciple of the late Lam
Adesina in the days of Action Congress of Nigeria. After the party
merged with other parties to form the All Progressives Congress, Adesina
died and Koleoso, with some others left, alleging that they were
maginalised in the new arrangement. It is ironic that Alao-Akala and
Koleoso, who is seen as the LP leader in Oyo State can team up
politically, having belonged to rival parties for a long time.
In the event that the four Ibadan
candidates split the votes in Ibadan among themselves, whatever the
result is may not guarantee winning the race unless one of them commands
huge number of the votes in Oke-Ogun and Ogbomoso.
As the incumbent governor, Ajimobi
remains in the favourite position. After criticisms trailed his policies
and projects, he has bounced back to reckoning, engraving his name in
the heart of the people through job offers, masses-oriented projects,
council tours and other political methods. He has also told the people
that the only way he can consolidate on his achievements is to return as
the state governor. Perhaps, his major strength is enhancing security
in the state. Whatever Ajimobi is doing to win the people seems to be
working in the midst of the crisis that is engulfing opposition parties
in the state.
In the last election, Ladoja had a good
number of votes in Ibadan but suffered defeats in many parts of Oke-Ogun
area. After he was confirmed as the candidate of his party, he said
that the party would concentrate his campaign on Oke-Ogun and Ibarapa
areas. However, Accord Party is facing a trial period right now because
of failure of the party to conduct primary elections for its aspirants.
Many of them were aggrieved that the party leaders resolved to pick
candidates rather than choose them democratically.
Last week, hundreds of the party members
joined SDP during an event where Makinde was inaugurating his campaign
team in all the 351 wards in the state. The group was led by Adebisi
Shittu from Ibadan North council area, Metomi Adetokunbo from Ibadan
South-East and Oladele Bello from Saki West area. They told the
gathering that they left AP because their interests were no longer
considered important. This is a development that could cost AP in the
state unless Ladoja and other party leaders quickly address the issues
surrounding the defection of its members.
Makinde might have lost out in his quest
to become PDP governorship candidate in 2015, but he took a bold step to
join SDP and become the party’s governorship candidate. It was an easy
way of escaping crisis and remaining relevant in the race. His project
started three years ago and so far, he has been able to penetrate the
major areas of the state. The billionaire businessman, who is the
youngest among all the candidates, is determined to test his popularity
even with a political party that is not popular. With his wealth,
mobilising people to work for him is not a challenge. His major obstacle
is how his loyalists will be able to convince the electorate that being
a young man is not a disability to success in politics.
From the moment he emerged as PDP
candidate, Folarin inherited a home that needed mending. He has
maintained that the party is in great shape ahead of 2015 and that there
is enough time to rebuild the house if needs be. But that is a hurdle
he can manage. On December 9, 2014, a letter written by the Independent
National Electoral Commission and signed by its secretary, Mrs. Augusta
Ogakwu, was sent to the chairman of PDP notifying him that a court
ruling had restrained it from recognising or treating as a nominated
candidate of PDP anyone who did not emerge in accordance with the order
of the court. This puts Folarin’s candidacy in controversial pool.
Although, the candidate said that the party had neutralised the ruling,
it is delicate to approach an election, with big players involved,
injured.
Clearly, Folarin has the support of the
PDP at the national level as events leading to his emergence
demonstrated. However, Oyo State politics has no respect for external
influence because of various interests within. One factor that still
favours the party is the fact that other major actors like Mulikat
Akande-Adeola, Senators Ayo Adeseun and Hosea Agboola are still in the
party. They are from Oke-Ogun and Ogbomoso, giving a hope that PDP can
still be competitive in the opposition stronghold.